It’s the fourth round of a typical ULBPC tourney, waiting for the bubble to burst. “rsnbrgr” has bided his time with conservative play. He has M=23, Q=0.9 and decides to prospect with pocket 7s. Chip leader “and2471″ oddly elects to sacrifice the SB. “megakeeper” checks his option.

The flop gives “rsnbrgr” quads, but there’s a big problem: the board has no straight draws, only a flush draw. “rsnbrgr” checks because he knows the other players must reach the river to catch something useful. It gets checked around.

The turn brings a ten and a second flush draw. It gets checked around to “Lucky Dewey” on the button, who meekly bets the minimum. “rsnbrgr” feels his opponent may only be sweetening the pot with a drawing hand (89, 8J, 9J, or something suited). He elects to flat-call; “megakeeper” folds.

The river brings an offsuit 5, one of the truly useless cards in the deck — it kills every draw. “rsnbrgr” bets 3/5 of the pot and prays his opponent has pocket 5s. But “Lucky Dewey” simply folds, depriving “rsnbrgr” of his expected value for the hand…